assignment 2.2

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assignment 2.2
Hello,

i have a question regarding the exercise 2.2 of AI 2.
The model is the same as in the slides “Bayes’ Rule with Multiple Evidence”.
But we have only 4 probabilities given, while in the slides 5 are given.
Is there missing one? I cannot figure out a scalar as result.

VG Stefan

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Hello!

There should be enough probabilities given to compute everything - can you say where precisely you get stuck?

Cheers,
Katja


hello,

thanks for your response. I am not able to construct a formula independent of P(Down) or P(Age_{25}).
Which are probabilities which we cannot calculate.

On page 682 of the lecture slides there is an example with the same model given 5 probabilities (fifth one should be P(Down) or P(Age_{25} as far as i understand it).

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I agree with you StefanFi. Come and join me at my corona demonstration! I still have an empty seat at my desk.

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Hello,
I was able to solve Problem 2.2.2 by ignoring the age and setting P(Down) = P(Down/Age_25) and then calculating P(Down/Pos). I have no mathematical proof or explanation why this should work, but the result makes sense to me. Maybe a tutor can give provide a better explanation.

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